Rising euroscepticism and far-right influence across Europe threaten to overhaul the European Union‘s foreign policy framework in 2025, as highlighted in a Modern Diplomacy analysis. With stagnant growth, shrinking aid budgets, and geopolitical flashpoints like Ukraine, Gaza, and migration dominating agendas, the EU faces internal polarization and external pressures from a potential US pivot under President Trump. The second von der Leyen Commission prioritizes the Mediterranean, defense, and strategic autonomy, but experts warn of policy fragmentation without unified action.
Key 2025 Challenges Identified
EU foreign policy grapples with a tense landscape: Russia’s Ukraine aggression ranks as the top risk, with experts fearing a Russia-favorable ceasefire eroding security. A survey of nearly 400 specialists flagged US abandonment—equated in impact to a Russian nuclear strike—as a major concern, reflecting NATO reliance amid Trump’s threats.
Middle East instability follows closely: no durable Israel-Hamas peace expected, with fragile January 2025 ceasefires at risk, straining EU unity and soft power via perceived double standards on Ukraine vs. Gaza. Migration surges push outsourcing models like Italy’s, while economic woes—lagging innovation and debt—curb global ambitions.
| Top EU Risks 2025 | Likelihood/Impact Rank |
|---|---|
| Russia-favorable Ukraine ceasefire | Highest |
| US security withdrawal | High impact |
| Middle East no peace | Top risks |
| Hybrid attacks | Elevated |
Development aid faces cuts across donors, shifting to investment-led Global Gateway for infrastructure, sidelining SDGs.
Far-Right and Eurosceptic Surge
Far-right parties, fueling euroscepticism, capitalize on migration, economic stagnation, and war fatigue, polarizing key states like France and Germany. Without a strong Franco-German engine, Brussels struggles on Ukraine support, defense spending, and enlargement for war-torn candidates like Ukraine.
Enlargement ties to security: integrating southeastern Europe risks vulnerabilities absent robust measures. Experts predict UK-EU reset via sanctions alignment, defense funding, but offensive demands (youth mobility, fishing) complicate ties.
Policy Shifts in Von der Leyen Era
The new Commission elevates Mediterranean focus with a dedicated commissioner, emphasizing neighborhood defense over distant partnerships. Global Gateway pivots development to infrastructure, while border controls expand third-country deals, prioritizing deterrence over labor pathways.
Strategic autonomy gains traction amid US-China tensions: experts rate cross-strait conflict moderately likely but US non-intervention high-impact on EU trade. Calls grow for principled stances on international law to rebuild Global South trust.
Expert Statements and Analysis
EU experts via ISS: “A bad ceasefire deal in Ukraine, US abandonment, hybrid attacks, and no lasting peace in the Middle East” top risks; blueprint urges proactive navigation.
CGD blog: “Stagnating growth… war in Gaza… political instability in the Middle East will dominate,” risking SDG neglect; Mediterranean Commissioner signals priorities.
DW: “Vulnerable Ukraine, warmongering Russia, narcissistic Donald Trump” challenge EU sans Franco-German alliance; internal debt hampers action.
BST-Europe: “Linking enlargement and security essential” for Ukraine/southeastern stability; UK framework for joint missions eyed.
Carnegie: EU engagement “uneven… turned regional”; von der Leyen must leverage funds for cohesive global role.
Reactions from Think Tanks
Consensus urges reset: principled multilateralism, EU-UK defense pacts, MFF negotiations for direction. No outright panic, but warnings of “eroding soft power” from inconsistencies.
Optimism tempers: new HRVP, UK reset offer “third way” in US-China order. Egmont: 2025 “year of challenges” tests unity. SWP echoes securitization limits on decision traps.
Media frames as pivotal: Modern Diplomacy ties euroscepticism to foreign policy rethink; Global Policy Journal notes post-crisis juncture.
| Stakeholder Views [Various] | Key Quote |
|---|---|
| ISS Experts | “Defeat of Ukraine critical threat” |
| CGD | “Reset EU-UK… assert third way” |
| DW | “Biggest challenges: Ukraine, Russia, Trump” |
Implications for EU Global Role
Eurosceptic far-right pressures risk inward focus, but opportunities loom: formalize UK security ties, align enlargement-security, counter hybrid threats. Without coherence, EU cedes ground to US/Russia/China.
For “EU foreign policy 2025” queries, narrative blends peril—polarization, abandonment—with agency: leverage Commission tools for autonomy. Far-right gains demand strategic recalibration to sustain “global Europe” ambitions amid divergence.
This analysis spotlights 2025 as make-or-break: balance domestic euroscepticism with assertive diplomacy, or face diminished influence.
