Poland is preparing for a defining presidential election this Sunday, one that could reshape its political trajectory and influence the broader European landscape. The contest between centrist and pro-European Union candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist challenger Karol Nawrocki is being watched closely both domestically and across Europe, as it could either strengthen Poland’s current pro-EU stance or trigger a nationalist resurgence.
With Poland’s role in NATO, EU cohesion, and regional security at stake, the outcome of this high-stakes vote has far-reaching implications.
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A Battle Between Pro-EU and Nationalist Visions
A Divided Political Landscape
Thirteen candidates are competing, but polls suggest a two-man race between Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor backed by the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), and Nawrocki, a conservative historian endorsed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
- Trzaskowski currently leads with 33% in the polls.
- Nawrocki follows with 26%.
- Slawomir Mentzen, representing the far-right Confederation party, holds third with 11%.
With no candidate expected to cross the 50% threshold, a runoff vote is likely on June 1.
Foreign Policy at the Forefront
The campaign has been shaped largely by foreign policy issues, including:
- Poland’s alignment with the European Union and United States.
- Its role in defending NATO’s eastern flank against Russian aggression.
- The handling of migration, Ukraine, and rising anti-democratic populism in Europe.
“This is an identity election,” said Marcin Zaborowski of Globsec, noting the stark divide between candidates on how Poland should engage internationally.
The Role of the Presidency in Poland
While often seen as ceremonial, the Polish president wields real power, including:
- Vetoing legislation.
- Commanding the armed forces.
- Influencing foreign policy.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a conservative ally of PiS, has frequently clashed with Prime Minister Donald Tusk since the latter took office in 2023. A Nawrocki win could perpetuate this institutional gridlock, while a Trzaskowski victory would empower the government to push forward with reforms that have been stalled by presidential vetoes.
What’s at Stake for Europe?
Analysts warn that the result could steer Poland toward either deeper integration with the EU or a nationalist, potentially isolationist path.
- A Trzaskowski presidency would align Poland closer with Brussels and Tusk’s reformist agenda.
- A Nawrocki win could embolden right-wing forces across Europe and freeze domestic reform, possibly weakening the pro-democracy movement in the region.
Political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska cautioned that if Nawrocki wins, the government could become “paralysed,” leading to early elections and a possible return of populism.
Closing Thoughts
Sunday’s vote is not just a choice between two candidates, but between two visions for Poland’s future — one that continues on a path of EU cooperation and democratic reform, and another that leans toward nationalism and populist values. As the EU faces internal strains and external threats, Poland’s election could play a crucial role in shaping the continent’s direction in the years ahead.
This article is originally published on : france24
