Olaf Scholz has had a better summer. The German chancellor risks a disappointment in the regional elections in the east of the country on Sunday, September 1, if the polls are not wrong. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is even predicted to win by the polls in the region of Thuringia, with 30% of voting intentions, according to the German channel N-TV, almost 10 points more than the conservative CDU, the main opposition party. In Saxony, the two parties are neck and neck.
After a relative surge during the European elections on June 9, the AfD appears to be in a position of strength, driven by current events that are conducive to its favorite themes. The party is well-established in these regions of the former communist GDR, where it has achieved its best scores since its creation in 2013. “Several factors explain this trend: since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the East has accumulated economic problems, less investment, less industry, more unemployment and a strong distrust of politicians,” Sophie Pornschlegel, research director at the think tank Europe Jacques Delors in Brussels (Belgium), explained to franceinfo.
A focus on immigration
The AfD is thus riding on the discontent of a section of public opinion, fueled by inflation following the war in Ukraine, and the ecological transition. Immigration is also a regular target of the party, whose “remigration” plans caused a scandal in February. “They found the perfect scapegoat, in places where there are few immigrants, but where anti-immigration sentiment is very strong,” notes Sophie Pornschlegel.
Far-right leaders have also capitalized on the deadly knife attack in Solingen, in which the suspect is a Syrian refugee. The attack, which left three dead on August 23, “will inevitably have an influence on the elections,” stressed the conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “The party very frequently instrumentalizes news stories,” confirms Sophie Pornschlegel.
Even if it wins in Thuringia, which would be a first for a regional election, the AfD is unlikely to take control of the regional parliaments, because the other parties rule out any collaboration with it. The small region is home to the most radical wing of the far-right party, with its local leader Björn Höcke.
A new radical left party could make a breakthrough
Traditionally weak in these regions, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to decline further, to around 6%. Its two allies in the coalition that governs Germany, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), are almost insignificant there. The ruling coalition must also face a new force to its left.
A party recently created by the popular far-left figure Sahra Wagenknecht, who seceded from the radical left Die Linke, is attracting part of the electorate in the East. Her BSW party, anti-immigration and conservative in morals, is hammering home its rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine and “campaigned on the theme of peace with Russia”, says Sophie Pornschlegel. She is credited with between 15 and 20% of the vote, after having already obtained 6% for her first participation in the European elections.
The formation of a new government in these two regions therefore seems to be very complicated, especially because “it is possible that the BSW will become an important [actor]”, Marianne Kneuer, professor of political science at the Technical University of Dresden, told AFP. A headache for the conservatives of the CDU, who would find themselves having to negotiate with a Eurosceptic radical left party, a combination “almost impossible to put in place”, exclaims Sophie Pornschlegel.
Olaf Scholz in bad shape one year before the federal elections
In addition, these elections are shaping up to be a new warning for the unpopular ruling coalition, one year before the next federal elections, scheduled for September 2025. The CDU is expected to win with 31% according to the Politico poll aggregator, while the AfD is at 18% and the Social Democrats are capped at 15%. “This is clearly not positive for the parties in power, but we must also see that regional politics are very different from national politics. There is still a year to go before the elections,” Sophie Pornschlegel temporizes.
But if the “game is far from over”, the “progression of the AfD” has a strong impact “on the shift to the right of the political debate, by imposing its campaign themes”, the specialist points out. In return, “this forces parties, such as the Social Democrats and the Greens, to adopt tougher positions on immigration, which validates and favours the AfD,” she adds.
This article is originally published on francetvinfo.fr
